Will Vista’s Delay Really Matter?

Posted on April 28th, 2006

I’ve been watching the unfolding drama take shape Microsoft’s announcement that Windows Vista, the company’s next generation consumer and business desktop operating system, will be delayed further beyond its previous timeline. This is delay number 112 if you keep track of them as they go by. Naturally the news sparked off an uproar from angry Window enthusiasts and Microsoft bashers alike; with one side lamenting news while the other cheered. Engadget said it best…”Vista Delay Good For Pundits.” Open source zealots in particular, and even Mac users, see Vista’s delay as the death knell for Microsoft, or at least Windows. So what impact will the delay really have on the PC industry? None. Absolutely none whatsoever. What all the Linux trolls and Mac zealots fail to grasp is that the corporate customers never migrate to new operating systems at the time they roll out, and often delay upgrade cycles altogether until the first service packs are released, or until hardware upgrades require new system purchases. It is utter naivity and outright cluelessness to assume that business customers will make some kind of wholesale switch to a totally different platform because Vista is delayed by a mere few more months.

One the consumer side, mainstream users aren’t waiting with baited breath for Vista’s arrival. Operating systems just aren’t something to get excited about anymore. The days of people camping outside Best Buy, hoping to grab a shrink wrapped copy of Microsoft’s newest OS are over, and they ain’t coming back, as the saying goes.

But where logic is really sacrificed for irrational exuberance is the notion that Vista’s tardiness will spark a mass migration to Linux. Sorry, but that’s not going to happen. First off, I mean no disrespect to Linux supporters, but you folks need to understand…nobody wants Linux. The reason why desktop Linux has failed to take off is due to lack of demand, not Microsoft’s monopolistic tactics. Believe it or not, XP works fine for most consumers. Only a geek would believe that consumers are “tired” of their OS, in want of something new. Quite the contrary, what most people want is to simply learn how to do more with what they already have, like importing photos from their digital cameras, editing videos, or just keeping nasty malware off their machines. The last thing consumers want is to learn a whole new platform. Oddly enough In fact, that could become Microsoft’s Achilles heal, as the changes to its upcoming OS are so drastic, a lot of folks will find it totally alien.

So who really stands to gain or lose from Vista’s delay? The OEMs will be the biggest losers this holiday season, as there is little hope for an upsurge in PC sales. My insticts tell me that Vista will follow the same path as XP; a slow migration period spread over years, not weeks or months.